ZURICH, Sept. 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — “If the attention over the next two months will be on inflation and the Democrats, Republicans will have a very good election night,” says Dr. Louis Perron, an internationally renowned expert in winning elections. “If the focus will be on Trump and MAGA Republicans, however, Democrats have a chance to keep the Senate and to limit the losses in the House.”
Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump all lost their majority in the House of Representatives during their first midterm elections. According to Perron, who also teaches political marketing at the University of Zurich in Switzerland, history is clear and in the past, the approval rating of the incumbent president has been one of the best predictors for the outcome of the midterm elections. In the realclearpolitics polling average, 43% of the voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing while 54% disapprove. On the critical issue of inflation, Biden’s job approval is even worse: 32% approve of the job he does on inflation versus 68% who disapprove.
But what if Democrats were to defy history?
Dr. Perron, who has won dozens of elections in various countries, observes that Democrats have gained some momentum. In the average generic vote for Congress, Democrats are now slightly ahead of the Republicans: 44.5% say they would vote for the Democrat, 44.1% say that they would vote for the Republican.
“This is rare for the incumbent party at this stage of the electoral cycle and it’s the first time in basically a year that Democrats are in the lead,” Perron says.
What’s the reason?
Perron explains that the reason is not because of Biden’s leadership on the war in Ukraine, which he considers to be a side issue for American voters.
“It is also not because he is getting quite significant legislation passed despite a small majority and hyper polarization reigning in Washington D.C.,” Perron says.
According to Perron, the real reason is because with the FBI executing a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago (and the decision of overturning Roe vs. Wade) the spotlight is back on Donald Trump.
“Donald Trump obviously has a very enthusiastic base, which is why his candidates performed well in the Republican primaries. But some of the candidates that the Republican base chose do not seem very viable in a general election,” said Perron, who is also the author of a book on how challengers win elections.
“Trump’s base was already mobilized two years ago and despite all the talk about polarization, there still are independents in the U.S.,” Perron says. According to him, Trump got elected in 2016 with a minority of the votes because independents gave him the benefit of the doubt over Hillary Clinton. “After that, he lost the House of Representatives, then the White House, then the Senate for Republicans.”
Dr. Louis Perron is an internationally renowned political consultant based in Switzerland. He has won dozens of competitive election campaigns in various countries – from big city mayors up to president. He is the author of the book “How to Overcome the Power of Incumbency in Election Campaigns.”
For information, go to www.campaignanalysis.com
Dr. Louis Perron
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SOURCE Dr. Louis Perron